As an experienced bettor, you’ve likely moved beyond basic strategies and are now looking to refine your approach for greater profitability. Betting on esports can be a complex, high-stakes endeavor, but with the right tools and strategies, you can increase your chances of long-term success. The key lies in advanced betting strategies that involve data analysis, understanding market inefficiencies, and managing risk.
In this article, we’ll delve into some advanced strategies that can give you an edge when betting on 98win .
1. Value Betting: Identifying Market Inefficiencies
One of the foundational strategies for any experienced bettor is value betting. In essence, value betting involves finding odds that are higher than the true probability of an event occurring. This strategy requires a deep understanding of the game you’re betting on, as well as the ability to spot discrepancies between the bookmaker’s odds and your own calculations.
How to Value Bet:
- Assess the true probability of an event: Begin by evaluating each team’s strength, weaknesses, and current form. Use historical data, head-to-head statistics, and player performance to estimate the true probability of an outcome.
- Compare your probabilities to the odds: Once you’ve calculated the true probability, compare it with the odds the bookmaker is offering. If the odds represent a higher implied probability than your own estimation, that’s a sign that there’s value in the bet.
- Look for inefficiencies: Sometimes, bookmakers will adjust odds based on public perception or emotional betting. For instance, a popular team may be overvalued, while an underdog might be undervalued. Identifying these market inefficiencies gives you an opportunity to place value bets.
By consistently placing value bets over time, you can build a profitable betting portfolio, even if you don’t win every single wager.
2. Arbitrage Betting: Risk-Free Profits
Arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of a match or event using different bookmakers to ensure a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. This strategy works by exploiting the differences in odds between various bookmakers.
How to Arbitrage Bet:
- Find discrepancies in odds: The key to arbitrage betting is spotting when different bookmakers offer significantly different odds on the same event. This typically occurs when one bookmaker overestimates the probability of one outcome, while another bookmaker offers better odds on the other side.
- Place bets across multiple bookmakers: Once you find the odds discrepancies, you need to calculate the exact stake amounts to place on each outcome to ensure that no matter what happens, you will come out ahead. There are several arbitrage calculators available online to help you do this quickly.
- Use multiple betting accounts: Since arbitrage betting involves betting across multiple bookmakers, you’ll need accounts with several betting platforms. 98win offers competitive odds, but you may also want to check other platforms for discrepancies in odds.
While arbitrage betting is low-risk and can provide guaranteed profits, it does require significant research, quick execution, and a network of bookmakers to ensure success.
3. Betting on Statistical Models: Data-Driven Approach
Advanced bettors often rely on statistical models to guide their decisions, allowing them to make objective, data-driven bets. By using historical data, player statistics, team performance metrics, and advanced algorithms, bettors can build predictive models to forecast match outcomes.
How to Bet with Statistical Models:
- Gather the right data: To build an effective statistical model, you need access to large amounts of data. This includes past results, player stats, team metrics, and situational factors (e.g., map preference, team composition). Sources like HLTV for CS:GO or Liquipedia for Dota 2 are great starting points.
- Create a predictive model: Once you’ve collected your data, use statistical techniques like regression analysis, machine learning, or Monte Carlo simulations to create a model that predicts match outcomes. You don’t need to be a data scientist, but having a solid understanding of these concepts can give you a significant edge.
- Backtest your model: Before betting real money, backtest your model using historical data to ensure that it provides a positive expected value over time. The more accurate your model, the better your betting strategy will be.
- Refine your model over time: As more data becomes available and as teams evolve, constantly refine your model to improve its predictions. Continuous adjustments will help you stay ahead of the market and increase profitability.
Statistical models take time to develop, but once you’ve fine-tuned yours, it becomes an incredibly powerful tool for consistent profits.
4. Hedge Your Bets: Risk Management
Hedging is a strategy used to minimize losses or secure profits by placing opposing bets on the same event. Experienced bettors often use hedging to manage risk or lock in profits if the initial bet isn’t looking favorable.
How to Hedge Your Bets:
- Identify opportunities to hedge: The most common hedging strategy occurs when a bet you placed earlier in the tournament has the chance to yield a profit, but you want to reduce your risk. For instance, if you placed a bet on an underdog team that made it to the final, you can hedge by placing a bet on the favorite team in the final match.
- Balance the stakes: The key to successful hedging is balancing your stakes in a way that ensures you’ll either break even or lock in a profit. You’ll need to compare the odds of the opposite bet to the one you initially placed and calculate how much to bet to ensure that the potential outcomes are covered.
- Use hedging for long-term profitability: Hedging can be an excellent way to secure profits during tournaments with fluctuating odds. Rather than risking a complete loss, you can adjust your positions to ensure a steady return.
While hedging can eat into profits, it’s a useful strategy for reducing exposure to risk and ensuring a more consistent return on investment over time.
5. Betting the Line: Handicap Betting
Handicap betting involves placing bets on outcomes where one team is given a virtual advantage or disadvantage, based on their perceived strength. This strategy is especially popular in esports betting, where the strength disparity between teams is often significant.
How to Bet the Line:
- Understand the handicap: For example, in a CS:GO match, a bookmaker might give one team a -1.5 handicap, meaning that they have to win by at least 2 maps for the bet to be successful. Conversely, an underdog team with a +1.5 handicap only needs to lose by 1 map or win outright for the bet to be successful.
- Look for value in the line: Handicap betting can provide opportunities to bet on stronger teams in more favorable conditions or back underdogs with extra value from the handicap.
- Consider the tournament format: Handicap betting can also be influenced by tournament formats. For example, in a best-of-3 match, a favorite may have a harder time covering a large handicap compared to a best-of-5 match, where the stronger team has more room to dominate.
Final Thoughts
For experienced bettors on 98win, advanced strategies like value betting, arbitrage betting, data-driven models, hedging, and handicap betting can significantly improve your chances of profitability. By leveraging these strategies, you can stay ahead of the curve, reduce risks, and maximize your returns.
The key is to be disciplined, data-informed, and willing to adapt your approach as you gather more insights into the esports betting landscape.